Continued assessment of the introduction by the US of the biggest tariffs since the 1930s, as markets in the US drop by recession-signalling levels, with US treasury yields (10 yr) rising by over 30 basis points in the 3 days subsequent to the announcement of tariffs. As US trading partners contemplate whether retaliatory tariffs are advisable, or as erroneous as the initial US actions are, according to the narratives they have put out, they are asking is retaliation appropriate, as it also hurts the retaliator directly, as in real war, or, are more enlightened, trade enhancing, strategies best?

Ireland avoids major pharma vulnerability - perhaps completely if the US can be persuaded by the EU to adhere to the World Trade Organisation Pharma Agreement that it signed in 1994. Potential silver linings exist - if the EU and other allies such as the UK and Australia decide against a policy of knee jerk retaliation, and contemplate a negotiated response offering tariff reductions and specialist trade deals (e.g. in aviation or defence spending) in response to the Trump tariffs. The potentials of a firm but fair response from Europe offering offramps by negotiating down US threatened tariffs will potentially be key to enabling the White House to extricate itself from what has become an isolated global policy position.

For more analysis see the latest issue of Finance Dublin.
And: the fallacious economics underpinning the US Administration's economic strategy.

Regarding the St Patrick's Day visit of the Taoiseach to Washington DC this month we conclude that "Ireland should not lose faith in the economic model that it has followed since as a newly fledged state it worked things out economic policy-wise in the 1950s. Indeed it is time for it to double down on that, to work on it to make it better and to extend its reach and benefits, both in the domestic economy, and in other countries through its reach in both its exports and its capital flows and investments into other countries. That effort of persuasion begins with the United States".

This analysis is supported by our two page economics feature that examines the roots of the economics theories that are apparently being followed in Washington, comparing them to the principles of 'Reaganomics', that also share many of the foundational elements of the Irish economic model.

The model is resulting in the fiscal and balance of payments surplus, and the continued prosperity of Ireland. This prosperity is, again, evident in the Nominations for the Finance Dublin Deals of the Year Awards 2025, profiled in this edition, and which will be announced in the forthcoming May edition. As a perusal of the list and the record number of nominations reveals the broad nature of the deals activity reported is vivid evidence broadly of what a healthy growing economy looks like.

The cover article this month assesses the implications for Ireland's economy, trade and, importantly, capital flows in light of the materially changed global trade environment resulting from US President Trump's unfolding policy agenda, and the Executive Actions signed by him to date. It also puts in perspective the implications of the White House Executive Order threatening a withdrawal by the US from the OECD - sponsored " Global Tax Deal" signed in 2021, the global tax treaty agreement underpinning Ireland's Corporation Tax system.

Extensive research conducted by EY into Ireland's financial centre potentials amongst over 140 industry participants in 2023 has resulted in the accumulation of a body of insights on the potentials for the IFS sector in Ireland. EY's Managing partner in charge of IFS Colin Ryan says that some 27,000 jobs can be added to the Irish IFS sector by 2028.

Ahead of the agreement of Ireland's new Government the final issue of 2024 analyses the national economic and financial agenda agenda reflecting the reality that tax (and the importance of getting corporation tax right, particularly with regard to Ireland's interface with the USA) is at the centre of that new agenda, and its economic potentials.

There are potential risks to Irish corporate tax revenues from US statements about tariffs and a 15% US corporation tax rate - also examined in the November issue of Finance Dublin but positive and enlightened engagement on the part of the new Irish Government can turn perceived difficulty in effect into opportunity, it says.

Writing in the November issue (page 8 of the E paper) Assistant Secretary of the Department Michael J McGrath says 'we want to ensure that Ireland maintains its leading position in asset management and funds servicing, and that we continue to see support for what is an important national industry and has a vital role to play in deepening our EU capital markets'.

We comment: 'That endorsement of 'an important national industry' is significant, and it is likely to mean a lot, not just in light of Ireland's global position as the second largest funds domicile in the EU, but in anticipation of Ireland's impending assumption of the EU presidency in 2026, and indeed in relation to the nature of Ireland's engagement with the US in view of the incoming new US presidency.

There are potential risks to Irish corporate tax revenues from US statements about tariffs and a 15% US corporation tax rate - examined in the issue also (see pages 3, 5, 32, 54 in the E paper) but, as we comment, positive and enlightened engagement can turn perceived difficulty in effect into opportunity. A quotation attributed to one time US Trade Secretary Wilbur Ross about tariffs, a first term President Trump Cabinet appointee provides an insight as to the strategy 'Ireland Inc', and the incoming Government should follow in engaging with the new US Administration on trade matters coming up (see page 8 of the E paper).

This month's issues features the Finance Dublin Accountancy Survey 2024. The 14.7 p.c. growth rate in fee income over the past year recorded by Ireland Top 20 Accountancy firms is five times the expected rate of growth of overall GDP this year, and that makes the accountancy industry a leading contributor, and an asset in the continuing success of the Irish economy. The growth of their contribution to the Irish economy can be seen by comparing the industry today, as depicted in this year's 2024 survey, with what it was when we in Finance Dublin/Finance Magazine, published the first such survey in December 1987.

Most of the accountants and tax advisers in the firms covered in the Survey would have been dismayed by the recent Apple judgement - and we provide a perspective in this edition, in the Irish Tax Monitor, quoting the Taoiseach's views on the matter. In our editorial on this we express the point that it, as a judicial decision, is subjective. It is also wrong in our opinion, indeed unjust, to also use the somewhat emotive term used by the relevant Commissioner in her comments on the Judgement. The ruling says it was a sweetheart deal done by the Irish Revenue Commissioners. The very nature of the (distinct) Irish legal system means that the Irish Revenue never did sweetheart deals, as part of its modus operandum, and to insist they did is not just inappropriate for the highest European court to have ruled, but indeed potentially a stain on their reputation as well.

With a new political cycles beginning in the EU and ahead of elections in Ireland and the US, we assess the potential implications for Ireland's financial services industry. Already, change is signalled at EU level with the re-elected European Commission president signalling, in relation to the EU Green Deal, focus will shift to implementing existing laws rather than passing new ones.
We feature perspectives from thought leaders in the Irish industry on how the existing agenda is likely to be implemented, and to reflect on how it might change and evolve in the coming period. "Financial Services Regulation Review in the election year of 2024" provides a Symposium of views from 16 thought leaders on the critical regulatory issues for Irish FS, as the new electoral cycles begin both in Europe and at home in Ireland.
Also featuring in the issue are a number of assessments and observations on the Enria report on the McMenamin judgement of IFSAT. How this will roll out is seen as positive, expecially given the CBI's plans to implement the recommendations fully. This is also the topic of our editorial comment which says "The reassurance that now will flow from Governor Makhlouf's statements of acceptance of Enria's recommendations will be an important step in increasing confidence amongst international FS FDI investors about the Republic of Ireland as an investable jurisdiction".

Finance Dublin Yearbook 2024 - our annual publication that steps back and reviews the year past and 2024, and onwards, as it is evolving is published.

Already, despite the seismic changes underway in FS regulation we are looking to future developments, in an EU context as we look forward to an Irish EU Presidency in 2026, referenced in the interview in the Yearbook by newly appointed Financial Services Minister, Neale Richmond TD. It is a shop window of the industry referred to by Minister Richmond in his interview as follows: "what has been achieved in IFS is in many ways one of most successful partnerships between industry and Government in the history of Irish life".

These contextual changes are assessed in the Review and Outlook articles in the publication, featured here. This is just part of the evolving analysis that Finance Dublin delivers on a monthly basis.

The 2024 Yearbook profiles new entrants and updates the Finance Related Professional Services Guide of the Yearbook and the Directory sections to provide profiles of 538 companies and organisations and over 1,000 individual professionals and executives.

In this issue, as election news dominates in both of Ireland's nearest neighbours, and across the Atlantic in the USA, the cover feature provides a political and economic report on the state of the nation for the Republic, and what it means as Ireland enters the latter stages of its own election cycle, on foot of the momentouous European and Local Election results in the Republic of Ireland in June.

It concludes: 'the findings confirm indications that have been evident in the trends shown in opinion polls since late 2023 that the next election is the incumbent Government parties' to lose, and that a re-alignment of the centre parties Fianna Fail and Fine Gael (who together won over 50% of the seats in the local elections) in a coalition with independents or with smaller parties of the centre left is the likely political backdrop indicated in actual voting patterns, and, reflected in the trends identified in opinion polls.

In the latest issue: the 2024 Deals of the Year Awards, which celebrate the achievements of the Irish capital markets and corporate finance dealmaking and advisory community - detailed in 46 articles in the issue each profiling the deals that are recognised this year.

They show that despite the shifting market conditions, and increased uncertainty in the economic environment, the industry continues to show itself as adaptable and flexible, and capable of delivering the impressive achievements profiled in the report.

Elsewhere in the issue we look into the factors behind the leap for Dublin to 25th most important financial centre in an index ranking coveted by the top financial cities of the world, the Global Financial Centres Index of financial centres (GFCI).

Amongst these are the robust stability of the Irish economy, characterised by a surplus in the Exchequer - a not accidental situation that puts the Irish Government in a strong position ahead of the 2025 Budget, forthcoming, which will most likely be the last before the next general election. These are discussed in this month's editorial, and in articles in the Developments pages of the issue, and in the latest Irish Tax Monitor.